WASHINGTON — The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing expected El Niño conditions, the agency said on May 21.
NOAA’s outlook for the season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, forecasts an 55% chance of below-normal activity, a 35% chance of near-normal and a 10% chance of above-normal. Forecasters expect 8 to 14 named storms, of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
The ranges carry a 70% confidence level, according to the agency. An average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
“Early preparation remains essential to staying safe all season,” NOAA officials emphasized in the outlook release.
The forecast factors in the anticipated development of El Niño, which typically increases wind shear in the Atlantic and suppresses tropical cyclone formation. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be only slightly above normal, providing less favorable conditions for storm development compared to recent hyperactive seasons.
This marks a shift from more active seasons in prior years. NOAA and other forecasting groups, including Colorado State University, have pointed to similar below-normal expectations in their outlooks.
Hurricane experts noted that even in below-normal seasons, individual storms can still cause significant impacts. Coastal residents in hurricane-prone areas from the Caribbean to the U.S. Gulf and East coasts are advised to review preparedness plans.
As of mid-June, the season has seen limited early activity consistent with the outlook, though the peak months of August through October remain ahead. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor tropical disturbances.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and National Weather Service produced the seasonal outlook using multiple climate models and historical data. The agency plans to issue an updated mid-season forecast in August.
The situation will be monitored closely as conditions evolve. Residents are urged to heed local warnings and prepare for potential storms regardless of the overall seasonal prediction.
