NEW YORK — Top U.S. executives are bracing for a potential economic downturn over the next six months, according to a major business survey released this month.
The Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence fell to 47 in the second quarter of 2026 from 59 in the first quarter, with 40% of respondents expecting economic conditions to worsen over the coming six months, up sharply from 13% in the prior quarter.
The survey, conducted in collaboration with The Business Council, indicated that 47% of CEOs viewed the economy as worse than six months earlier. Thirty-one percent of respondents said they plan to reduce their workforce in the next six months, outpacing the 28% who intend to expand hiring.
“CEOs reported that the economy is materially worse now than it was six months ago and expected economic conditions to weaken further over the next six months,” the Conference Board said in a statement.
The findings come amid broader concerns about moderating growth, labor market softening and policy uncertainties. Other surveys have presented mixed outlooks, with some forecasters projecting U.S. GDP growth around 2% for 2026 while noting risks from interest rates, fiscal policy and geopolitical factors.
Business leaders cited challenges including hiring difficulties, with 53% reporting “some problems in some areas,” and a slowdown in planned wage increases, which are now concentrated in the 3% to 4% range.
Corporate planning reflects caution, with reduced optimism about short-term prospects. However, expectations for conditions in their own industries remained relatively more positive, though lower than in the previous quarter.
Separate assessments from economists have pointed to a low but non-zero probability of recession, with many highlighting resilience in certain sectors while flagging vulnerabilities in the labor market and global trade dynamics.
As of mid-June, executives continued to monitor Federal Reserve policy decisions and broader macroeconomic indicators. Details on specific industry impacts remained varied, according to available reports. No consensus forecast for a sharp contraction emerged from the surveyed business leaders.
The latest data underscore a shift toward defensive positioning among major companies as they navigate the current environment. Further updates from ongoing business surveys are expected in the coming weeks.
