WASHINGTON — The shortage of primary care physicians in the United States is intensifying as a growing proportion of medical graduates pursue training in higher-paying specialties, according to data from recent residency matches and workforce projections.
The 2026 National Resident Matching Program (NRMP) Main Residency Match, results of which were released in March, showed primary care specialties — including internal medicine, family medicine, pediatrics and internal medicine-pediatrics — offered a record 20,712 positions, an increase of 412 from the previous year. However, the collective fill rate for these positions fell to 92.1 percent, down 1.4 percentage points from 2025, the NRMP reported.
Family medicine positions, which numbered 5,491 this year, recorded the lowest fill rate at 83.6 percent, leaving nearly 900 positions unfilled, according to match data. Internal medicine achieved a 95.2 percent fill rate, and pediatrics reached 94.4 percent.
Projections from the Health Resources and Services Administration indicate the U.S. could face a shortage of more than 70,000 primary care physicians by 2038, part of a broader physician shortfall estimated at up to 141,000. The Association of American Medical Colleges has similarly forecasted ongoing gaps, with primary care among the areas most affected amid rising demand from an aging population and increased prevalence of chronic conditions.
Medical graduates are increasingly opting for specialties such as cardiology, dermatology and surgical fields, driven by factors including compensation differences, lifestyle considerations and perceptions of workload. Primary care physicians often manage broader patient panels with significant administrative demands and relatively lower reimbursement rates compared to procedural specialties.
"Primary care remains foundational to the health care system, yet the pipeline shows signs of strain as students weigh career options," said an official with the American Academy of Family Physicians in a statement following the 2026 Match.
The trend exacerbates access challenges, particularly in rural and underserved areas where primary care shortages are most acute. Health Professional Shortage Areas continue to report difficulties recruiting and retaining physicians, leading to longer wait times and reliance on advanced practice providers in some regions.
Efforts to address the gap include legislative proposals to expand Medicare-supported residency positions and incentives for primary care practice. However, the NRMP noted plans to convene a panel to examine factors affecting student interest in family medicine specifically.
As of June 2026, the full impact on patient care remains under monitoring by health workforce analysts. Officials have emphasized the need for sustained investment in primary care training and retention strategies to mitigate projected shortfalls.
