WASHINGTON — A new study has linked the spread of smartphones in the United States to a decline in fertility rates, with researchers saying the introduction and early adoption of the iPhone may have contributed to lower birth rates after 2007. The study, published in June 2026 as a working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), examined smartphone access patterns and birth data to assess whether the technology’s expansion affected fertility trends.
The researchers, Caitlin K. Myers of Middlebury College and Ezekiel Hooper, analyzed the early rollout of the iPhone, which was initially available through AT&T in the United States, as a way to compare areas with earlier and later access to the device. The paper said counties with earlier access experienced larger declines in births among younger age groups during the period studied.
The study did not conclude that smartphones were the only cause of falling fertility. Researchers said the findings suggest smartphone adoption was one factor associated with changing social behavior and fertility patterns. Other experts have pointed to additional influences, including economic conditions, housing costs, childcare expenses and changing decisions about when to have children.
According to the NBER paper, the researchers estimated that smartphone diffusion was associated with a reduction in births among teenagers and women in their 20s, with smaller effects among older age groups. The authors said their findings were based on statistical comparisons of areas with different levels of early smartphone availability, rather than direct surveys of individual decisions.
The researchers proposed that smartphones may have affected fertility through changes in social interaction, including reduced in-person contact among young people. A separate discussion of the research noted that the study focused on behavioral changes linked to technology use rather than biological effects on fertility.
Some analysts have cautioned that the broader decline in U.S. fertility began before smartphones became widespread and is likely influenced by multiple factors. The long-term decline in births has been studied by economists and demographers who have examined economic uncertainty, delayed parenthood and other social changes.
On Monday, researchers and commentators continued discussing the findings as part of a wider debate about technology’s role in demographic changes. The NBER paper remains a working paper, and further research is expected to examine how digital technology, relationships and family decisions interact over time.
